Author: Angie Burgess

Click Here to Watch the Interview: Brent & Brad Chappell

Insights on Transitions, Independence & Advisor Growth

About this episode…

Many successful people attribute their achievements to having a great mentor.

For Brent and Brad Chappell, their father was a “childhood hero who became their business mentor.”

Robert Chappell founded his wealth management practice at Merrill in 1984, when being part of the “Thundering Herd” was like being part of a much larger family.

The brothers proudly reminisce about the influence Robert and his work at Merrill had on them, so it was no surprise when Brent and Brad joined the firm in 2002 and 2006, respectively.

The Chappells’ early experience at Merrill was one of two families blended together. Yet that kinship diminished after the firm’s sale to Bank of America, and the team’s ability to serve clients and conduct daily business became challenged.

Like many successful wirehouse teams, the Chappells credit the firm for being the foundation of their family business. But they saw the handwriting on the wall, and it said that they owed it to themselves and their clients to explore their options.

In February 2023, Brent, Brad, and their team left the firm their father retired from and launched Chappell Wealth Management as one of the largest teams on the Sanctuary Wealth supported independence platform.

In this episode with Louis Diamond, Brent and Brad talk about their journey and motivations, including:

• Growing up with Merrill—and what changes they witnessed over the years.
• Their unique perspective as next gens in a family business—and when it became clear that “what got them here wouldn’t get them there.”
• The economics of a move to independence—and how they reconciled the fact that they would owe money back on their father’s CTP agreement.
• Their exploration and transition process—and why “education” was one of the most valuable facets.
• Plus, what it really takes to build a $1B+ business.

Listen in as they candidly share a unique narrative about a changing wirehouse world, family dynamics, succession, and building a strong business designed to achieve long-term enterprise value.

May 2025 Market Summary: Stocks Post Strong Gains, Gold Price Stays Flat, Longer-Term Treasury Yields Rise

 

Stocks posted strong performances across the board including the S&P 500 and Nasdaq, which both had their best months since November 2023. The Nasdaq Composite surged 9.7%, the S&P 500 increased 6.3%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 4.2%. Several companies in the semiconductor sector, including Microchip Technology (MCHP), Broadcom (AVGO) and First Solar (FSLR) helped propel indices higher with jumps of 25% or more in May.

Global markets also had a solid month; Developed EAFE Markets posted a 4.7% gain and Emerging Markets added 4.3%

The only negative sector in May was the Health Care sector, which slipped 5.6%. The three best sectors in May were Technology (+10%), then Industrials (+8.8%), which was helped by respective 27% gains in GE Vernova (GEV) and Rockwell Automation (ROK), followed by Consumer Discretionary (+8.4%).

The YoY Producer Price Index fell one percentage point from 3.37% in March to 2.38% in April (the latest data available) while inflation and core inflation both continue to remain below 3%. The Federal Reserve voted to maintain its key Fed Funds Rate target range of 4.25%-4.50% at the third consecutive FOMC meeting. The price of Gold was virtually unchanged in May, breaking a four-month win streak. However, shares of GLD stayed above $300 for the second straight month.

The yield curve steepened in May as rates on all Treasury instruments between 1 and 30 years increased anywhere between 24 and 29 basis points. The 3-month treasury rate increased 5 basis points, and the 1-month fell by 2. Steepening yields caused long-duration bond funds to fall, including the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) which declined 3.2%.

 

---

Chappell Wealth Watch! US Consumer Sentiment Index Plummets to Third-Lowest Level Ever

Though it was a big month for equities, consumer sentiment greatly soured this month. The US Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 52.20 in May 2025, its third lowest level on record, just higher than May 1980 (51.70) and June 2022 (50.00).

Notably, high inflation occurred during the latter two periods, and consumer sentiment index improved once inflation cooled down in both instances. But despite inflation staying below 3% throughout 2025, the index has nosedived from 74.00 in December 2024 to 52.20.

 

---

Equity Performance: Equities Rally Across the Board, Nasdaq Composite Up Almost 10% in May

 

---

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

---

US Sector Movement

 

 

---

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of May 2025

 

 

---

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of May 2025

 

 

---

Economic Data Overview: Gold Breaks Four-Month Win Streak, Fed Funds Rate Stays Unchanged, Crypto Soars

 

Employment

The unemployment rate was unchanged in April at 4.2%, and the labor force participation rate inched higher for the second-straight month, up to 62.6%. Nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added 177,000 jobs in April, lower than the downwardly revised 185,000 in March but higher than the Dow Jones estimate of 133,000.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate fell to 2.31% in April, while core inflation came in virtually unchanged MoM at 2.78%. The US Consumer Price Index MoM rose by 0.2% after contracting in March for the first time since May 2020, and US Personal Spending increased 0.23%.

The Federal Reserve maintained its key Fed Funds Rate target range of 4.25%-4.50% at the FOMC’s May 7th meeting, the third consecutive meeting in which it has voted to do so. The next meeting will take place on June 18th, where investors again anticipate the target range to remain unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.2 points in April to 48.5, keeping the index in contraction territory for the third consecutive month. However, the Services PMI rebounded 0.8 points between March and April, bringing its latest reading up to 51.60. The YoY US Producer Price Index declined drastically from 3.37% in March to 2.38% in April, while US Retail and Food Services Sales rose slightly MoM between March and April.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales surged 10.9% higher MoM in April, though Existing Home Sales contracted slightly by 0.5% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes grew 2.7% in April to $414,000, retaking the same level as August 2024, but remains 3% off its all-time high. Mortgage rates continued to stay relatively stable in May as they have throughout 2025; the 15-year Mortgage Rate was 6.03% as of May 29th, while the 30-year came in at 6.89%.

Commodities

The price of gold was relatively flat in May, breaking a four-month win streak and causing the SPDR Gold Shares ETF (GLD) to finish the month at $303.60 per share, just 1.37% below its all-time high. Oil prices rebounded following a sharp decline in April; the price of Brent crude rose 1.5% MoM to $64.32 per barrel as of May 27th, while the price of WTI increased 3.5% to $61.61 per barrel as of the same date. As a result, the average price of gas rose three cents MoM to $3.29 per gallon.

 

---

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

---

Bond Fund Performance

 

 

April 2025 Market Summary: Domestic Stock Indices Mixed, Inflation Sets Record Low, Mid-Term Treasury Yields Fall

 

U.S. indices posted mixed results in April largely due to gains in the technology sector with tough quarters for some large-cap blue-chip companies. The Nasdaq Composite rose 0.88%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.68%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 3.08% due to significant losses by Chevron (-18.67%) and UnitedHealth Group (-21.44%), which make up 2% and 6% of the index, respectively.

Global markets had a positive month; Developed EAFE Markets posted a 4.69% gain and Emerging Markets added 1.34%.

Seven of the eleven sectors were in the red in April. Oil prices tumbled in April, forcing the Energy sector down 13.86%. The second worst performer was the Health Care sector, which fell 3.8% in part due to shares of UnitedHealth Group (the second largest company in the sector) plummeting after missed earnings and a cut to its full-year profit forecast, cutting 35% off its peak market cap of $575 billion in November 2024. Technology was the best performer with a 1.69% gain, followed by Consumer Staples, which added 0.2%.

Inflation fell to the lowest YoY level since February 2021, and Core Inflation came in under 3% for the first time in over four years. Oil prices tumbled in April; Brent crude oil fell 14.4% to $66.13 per barrel as of April 28th, while the price of WTI per barrel sank to $63.30. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes rose back to its December 2024 level of $403,700 in March, the latest data available.

Mid-term treasury yields with durations between 1 and 10 years declined in April while the long term 20-year and 30-year both rose slightly. This treasury yield movement led the iShares Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) to increase 0.43% while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) declined 1.36%.

 

---

Chappell Wealth Watch! Winners & Losers of the Dow Jones

While the tech-heavy Nasdaq gained 0.88% in April, the Dow Jones Industrial Average consisting of 30 “blue-chip” names shed 3.08%. 21 of the 30 Dow constituents were negative in April, including these five worst performers:

• UnitedHealth Group (UNH): -21.44%
• Chevron (CVX): -18.67%
• Nike (NKE): -11.15%
• The Walt Disney Co (DIS): -7.85%
• Amgen (AMGN): -6.62%

Here were the five best Dow performers in April:

• Walmart (WMT): 10.78%
• Boeing (BA): 7.44%
• Microsoft (MSFT): 5.29%
• McDonald’s (MCD): 2.33%
• Coca-Cola (KO): 1.30%

 

---

Equity Performance: Developed Global Markets Push Higher, Nasdaq Rises While Blue-Chip Dow Jones Index Falls

 

---

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

---

US Sector Movement

 

 

---

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of April 2025

 

 

---

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of April 2025

 

 

---

Economic Data Overview: Inflation Reaches Lowest YoY Level in Over Four Years, Oil Prices Tank, Home Prices Rise

 

Employment

The unemployment rate ticked higher for the second straight month, with March’s figure coming in at 4.2%. The labor force participation rate hovered at 62.5%. Nonfarm payroll data for March revealed that the U.S. economy added 228,000 jobs in the month, surpassing the 140,000 estimate.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate dropped further to 2.39% in March, reaching its lowest level since February 2021. Core inflation’s print of 2.79% also hit a milestone as it fell below 3% for the first time since April 2021. The US Consumer Price Index contracted by 0.1%, doing so for the first time since May 2020, and US Personal Spending rose 0.66%.

The Federal Reserve maintained its key Fed Funds Rate target range of 4.25%-4.50% at the FOMC’s March 19th meeting. The next meeting will take place May 7th, where investors anticipate the Fed Funds Rate to remain unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.3 points in April to 48.7, keeping the index in contraction territory. The Services PMI declined by 2.7 points between February and March, bringing its latest reading down to 50.80. The YoY US Producer Price Index declined to 2.74% in March, while US Retail and Food Services Sales jumped 1.43% MoM between February and March.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales spiked 7.42% higher MoM in March, though Existing Home Sales contracted by 5.85% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes grew to $403,700 in March, the same level as December 2024, and remains 5.43% off its all-time high. Mortgage rates were relatively stable in April; the 15-year Mortgage Rate was 5.94% as of April 24th, while the 30-year settled at 6.81%.

Commodities

The price of gold reached another all-time high in April, touching $3,500 per ounce in US Dollars before ending the month at $3,288.16. Oil prices took a dive in April; Brent crude oil plummeted 14.4% MoM to $66.13 per barrel as of April 28th, while the price of WTI slipped 11.9% to $63.30 per barrel as of the same date. The average price of gas declined two cents MoM to $3.26 per gallon.

 

---

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

---

Bond Fund Performance

 

 

March 2025 Market Summary: U.S. Stock Indices Tumble Further, Investors Flock to Gold, Yield Curve Largely Unchanged

 

Domestic equity indices fell further into the red to end Q1 as the North-American stock slide continued, influenced by macro events such as the U.S.-Canada trade war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%, the S&P 500 slipped 4.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 10.4%. Developed EAFE Markets dipped only 0.3%, while Emerging Markets posted a 0.7% gain. This market movement was a continuation of patterns that occurred in February.

Only two of the eleven sectors posted a positive return in March: Energy and Utilities. The worst performers were the cyclically sensitive sectors of Consumer Discretionary and Technology, both of which fell 8.3%. Communication Services was the third-worst, down 5.2%.

The price of Gold surged above $3,000 per ounce for the first time, setting another new all-time high. At the same time, high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies dove further in March. Inflation continued to decline, while the Fed held the Fed Funds Rate for the second consecutive FOMC meeting. As of April 1st, 2025, investors expect them to do the same at the May meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The yield curve posted no significant moves across any duration in March, which led to relatively muted bond fund performance. The biggest gainer was the Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF (BSV), while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) slipped 1.2%.

 

---

Chappell Wealth Watch! After the First Quarter, the Score is…

The first quarter has concluded – and it saw equities decline.

• Dow Jones: -1.27%
• S&P 500: -4.59%
• Nasdaq: -10.42%

This is only the seventh Q1 since 2000 where all three major U.S. indices posted negative Q1 returns. The worst Q1 in this 26-year timespan was in 2020, when the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq posted negative returns of -23.2%, -20.0%, and -14.2%, respectively.

 

---

Equity Performance: U.S. Stock Indices Tumble in March, Only Two of Eleven Sectors Positive

 

---

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

---

US Sector Movement

 

 

---

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of March 2025

 

 

---

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of March 2025

 

 

---

Economic Data Overview: Gold Soars to New All-Time High While Cryptocurrency Prices Plummet, Inflation Falls Back Below 3%

 

Employment

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% after falling to 4.0% for the first time since May 2024 in January, while the labor force participation rate fell by two-tenths of a percentage point to 62.4%. Nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the expected 170,000 consensus figure.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate leveled off at 2.82% in February after reaching 3% for the first time since May 2024. Core inflation also took a dip from 3.26% in January to 3.12% in February. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.22% month over month, and US Personal Spending rebounded 0.43% MoM after contracting last month for the first time since March 2023.

The Federal Reserve maintained its key Fed Funds Rate target range of 4.25%-4.50% at the FOMC’s March 19th meeting. The next meeting will take place May 7th, where investors anticipate the Fed Funds Rate to remain unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by 1.3 points in March to 49.0, putting the index back in contraction territory after being above 50 for the last two months. The Services PMI improved by 0.7 points between January and February, bringing its latest reading up to 53.50. The YoY US Producer Price Index declined to 3.17% in January, while US Retail and Food Services Sales improved 0.20% MoM between January and February.

Housing

Both types of home sales rebounded in February. US New Single-Family Home Sales improved 1.81% MoM in February, and Existing Home Sales rose 4.16% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes increased by 1.27% to $398,400, but remains 6.68% off its all-time high. Mortgage rates did not post significant moves in March; the 15-year Mortgage Rate ended up at 5.89% in the last week of March, while the 30-year settled at 6.65%.

Commodities

The price of gold set another all-time high in March, surging 10.2% in March to end the month at $3,122.67 per ounce in US Dollars. Oil prices moved in the opposite direction; Brent crude oil fell 1.1% in March to $73.96 per barrel as of March 24th, while the price of WTI slipped 0.7% to $69.46 per barrel as of the same date. The average price of gas increased another 3 cents MoM to $3.28 per gallon.

 

---

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

---

Bond Fund Performance

 

February 2025 Market Summary: U.S. Stock Indices Post Modest Declines, Employment Situation Improves, and the Median Home Price Slides Further

 

Domestic stock indices turned negative in February as ex-U.S. indices posted positive performances. The S&P 500 fell 1.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 3.9%. Emerging Markets added 0.5%, and Developed EAFE Markets logged a 2% gain.

The two consumer-related sectors were at the highest and lowest ends of the returns spectrum in February. Consumer Staples rose 5.2% in February, and Consumer Discretionary fell 7%. Six of the 11 total sectors were positive in February.

The Median Sale Price of Existing Homes fell below $400,000 for the first month in nearly a year, as New Single-Family Home Sales plummeted 10.5% MoM in December. On the employment front, unemployment fell to 4.0% as labor force participation rose. In commodity news, Gold reached a new all-time high in February as oil prices slipped.

Yields on mid to long-term Treasury instruments fell in February while shorter-term yields remained largely unchanged month over month. The decline in longer-term yields helped push bond funds higher, including the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which advanced 5.7% in February.

 

---

Off the YCharts! The Not-so-Magnificent Seven

The Magnificent Seven stocks––Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA)–lifted the market higher in 2023 and 2024, combining for a 156.1% return over that two-year span compared to a 25.2% gain for the rest of the index. (The S&P 500 overall was up 53.2% between 2023-2024.)

However, the tables seem to be turning in 2025.

Though the S&P 500 is up 1.4% through the first two months in 2025, it’s the broader “S&P 493” that is keeping the overall index afloat as the Magnificent Seven finds itself in selloff mode. This chart highlights a potential shift in market leadership and a market rotation into the broader S&P 493 companies that have performed well while the largest tech stocks have struggled.

 

---

Equity Performance: U.S. Stocks Slide in February, ex-U.S. Indices Rise

 

---

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

---

US Sector Movement

 

 

---

Hot Stocks: Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of February 2025

 

 

---

Laggards & Losers: 10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of February 2025

 

 

---

Economic Data Overview: Home Prices Fall along with Sales Activity, Cryptocurrency Prices Plummet

 

Employment

The unemployment rate fell to 4.0% for the first time since May 2024, while the labor force participation rate inched higher by one-tenth of a percentage point to 62.6%. Nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January, falling short of the expected 175,000 figure.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate rose to 3.00% in January, reaching this level for the first time since May 2024. Core inflation stayed roughly the same, clocking in at 3.26%. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.47% month over month, and US Personal Spending contracted for the first time since March 2023.

The Federal Reserve maintained its key Fed Funds Rate target range of 4.25%-4.50% at the FOMC’s January 29th meeting. The next meeting will take place March 18-19th, where investors anticipate the Fed Funds Rate to remain unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.6 points in February but remained in expansion territory at 50.30. The Services PMI declined 1.2 points between December and January, bringing its latest reading down to 52.80. The YoY US Producer Price Index rose to 3.51% in January, while US Retail and Food Services Sales MoM contracted -0.88% between December and January.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales plummeted 10.5% MoM in December, and Existing Home Sales also slipped 4.9% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes fell for the sixth time in the last seven months to $396,900, falling below $400,000 for the first time since March 2024. Mortgage rates came down slightly as well; the 15-year Mortgage Rate ended up at 5.94% in the last week of February, while the 30-year settled at 6.76%.

Commodities

The price of gold surged as much as 4.4% in February but ended the month 0.8% higher MoM, finishing February at $2,834.60 per ounce in US Dollars. Oil prices moved in the opposite direction; Brent crude oil fell 2.9% in February to $74.89 per barrel as of February 24th, while the price of WTI slipped 2.4% to $71.06 per barrel as of February 24th. The average price of gas increased 3 cents MoM to $3.25 per gallon.

 

---

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

---

Bond Fund Performance

 

January 2025 Market Summary: Stocks Drive Higher, Gold Soars to New All-Time High, Treasury Yields Largely Unchanged

 

Equities got off to a strong start in 2025 with positive performances in January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.8%, the S&P 500 advanced 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.7%. Large-cap Value had the best month among Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 equity styles, increasing 4.5% in January.

With the exception of Technology (-0.7%), all sectors rose in January. The best-performing sector in January was Health Care, which advanced 6.8%.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.90, joining the Services PMI in expansion territory for the first time since March 2024. Gold jumped 7.8% in January to $2,812.10 USD per ounce and the price of Brent crude oil rose 3.6% amid looming threats of a possible trade war between the U.S. and various countries.

The yield curve remained largely flat month-over-month, with the largest move across the curve being the 3-month slipping 6 basis points. In bond funds, the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) advanced 1.4%.

 

---

Chappell Wealth Watch! The State of a Potential Trade War

There are looming threats of U.S. imposed tariffs on certain countries, namely Canada and Mexico. What does the trade balance between each country look like?

Below are the U.S. trade balance figures between Canada and Mexico as of Q3 2024:

Trade balance on Services with Canada: $9.604 billion
Trade balance on Goods with Canada: -$19.03 billion
Trade balance on Services with Mexico: $1.295 billion
Trade balance on Goods with Mexico: -$45.91 billion

 

---

Equity Performance: Stocks Start Off Strong in 2025

 

---

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

---

US Sector Movement

 

 

---

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of January 2025

 

 

---

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of January 2025

 

 

---

Economic Data Overview: Gold Surges Amid Looming Trade War, Manufacturing Sector Re-enters Expansion Terrirory by a Quarter Point, Inflation Remains Level

 

Employment

The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% between November and December, and the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.5%. November nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs this month, the second straight monthly increase and surpassing the expected forecast of 155,000.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate inched higher for the third straight month to 2.89%, while core inflation decreased slightly to 3.24%. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.39% month over month, and US Personal Spending increased by 0.66%.

The Federal Reserve maintained its key Fed Funds Rate target range of 4.25%-4.50% at the FOMC’s January 29th meeting.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI improved by another 1.7 points in January to 50.90, boosting the Manufacturing sector into expansion territory for the first time since March 2024. The Services PMI increased 2.0 points between November and December, bringing its latest reading up to 54.10. The YoY US Producer Price Index rose to 3.31% in December, while US Retail and Food Services Sales MoM 0.45% between November and December.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales increased 3.6% MoM in December, while Existing Home Sales rose 2.2% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes remained unchanged at $404,400 month over month, while mortgage rates rose slightly; the 15-year Mortgage Rate ended January at 6.12%, while the 30-year settled at 6.95%.

Commodities

The price of gold surged 7.8% in January to $2,812.10 per ounce in US Dollars amid intensification of a potential multinational trade war. Oil prices also shot higher; Brent crude oil rose 3.6% in January to $77.30 per barrel as of January 27th, while the price of WTI increased 1.5% to $73.51 per barrel as of January 27th. The average price of gas increased 9 cents MoM to $3.22 per gallon as a result.

 

---

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

---

Bond Fund Performance

 

December 2024 Market Summary: Stocks End 2024 on a Mixed Note, Fed Cuts Interest Rate, Bond Funds Rise as Yield Fall

 

Equities posted mixed results in December to close out 2024. The price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 5.1% as UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), and Caterpillar (CAT) all posted double-digit declines in December. The market cap-weighted S&P 500 fell 2.4% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%. Small-caps had a particularly tough end to the year, as the Russell 2000 tumbled 8.3% in December.

Nonetheless, all three major US indices had a formidable 2024. The Dow rose 12.9%, the S&P 500 advanced 23.3%, and the Nasdaq surged 28.6%.

Only one sector had a positive December—Consumer Discretionary, which gained 1.1%. The worst-performing sector in December was Materials, which plummeted 10.8%.

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the current target range down to 4.25%-4.50%. Core inflation remained between 3.31% and 3.33% across all three prints between September and November. The prices of gold and major cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum all fell lower in December to cap off what was a very positive 2024 for all three.

Short-term treasury yields fell following the Fed’s December 18th rate cut, while longer-term yields climbed higher. The 1-month fell by 36 basis points while the 30-year rose by 42 basis points at the opposite end of the curve.

Bond funds also posted a mixed December as a result of the mixed yield movement. The SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) added 0.4%, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) sank 6.4%.

 

---

Chappell Wealth Watch! Top Performers of 2024

 

Another year has come and gone. With 2024 now in the rearview mirror, what were the year’s best performers?

These were the ten best-performing S&P 500 stocks in 2024:

Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR): 340.5%

Vistra Corp (VST): 257.9%

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA): 171.2%

United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL): 135.3%

Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON): 130.1%

Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL): 111.0%

Broadcom Inc (AVGO): 107.7%

Targa Resources Corp (TRGP): 105.5%

Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM): 102.1%

Constellation Energy Corp (CEG): 91.4%

For the best-performing stocks of last year within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 indices, check out our recent blog post on The Best Performing Stocks of 2024.

 

---

Equity Performance: Stocks Post Mixed Results to End the Year

 

---

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

---

US Sector Movement

 

 

---

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of December 2024

 

 

---

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of December 2024

 

 

---

Economic Data Overview: Fed Cuts Interest Rate by a Quarter Point, Inflation Remains Level

 

Employment

The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% between October and November, and the labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%. November nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs this month, a rebound from October’s print of 36,000, which was the lowest monthly jobs figure since December 2020.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate inched higher to 2.75%, while core inflation was virtually unchanged at 3.33% for November. Core inflation YoY has remained rangebound between 3.31% and 3.33% over the last three months. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.31% month over month, and US Personal Spending increased by 0.40%.

The Federal Reserve cut its key Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points at the FOMC’s December 18th meeting. This lowered the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.25%-4.50% from 4.50%-4.75%, and marks the third rate cut since March 2020.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded by 1.9 points in November to 48.40, though the Services PMI dropped 3.9 points between October and November, bringing its latest reading down to 52.10. The YoY US Producer Price Index rose to 2.98% in November, while US Retail and Food Services Sales increased 0.69% between October and November.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales rebounded with a 5.9% MoM increase in November after plummeting 14.8% in October, which was the largest monthly decline since July 2013. Existing Home Sales increased 4.8% MoM, marking its second consecutive monthly increase. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes remained relatively unchanged month over month, as did mortgage rates. The 15-year Mortgage Rate ended December at 6.00%, while the 30-year settled slightly higher MoM at 6.85%.

Commodities

The price of gold shed another 1.3% in December, breaking further from its historic run higher and ending the month at $2,616.00 per ounce in US Dollars. Brent crude oil declined by 0.9% in December to $73.50 per barrel as of December 25th, while the price of WTI increased 3.1% to $70.38 per barrel as of December 26th. The average price of gas fell 4 cents MoM to $3.13 per gallon.

 

---

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

---

Bond Fund Performance

 

 

November 2024 Market Summary: Stocks Rally, Home Sales Collapse, Bond Funds Appreciate

 

Equities rallied in November following the 2024 presidential election. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 7.7%, the Nasdaq Composite added 6.3%, and the S&P 500 advanced 5.9%. Certain ex-US markets weren’t as upbeat about the conclusion of the election, as Emerging Markets fell 3.6% and Developed Markets slipped 0.6%.

All eleven sectors finished November in the black. Consumer Discretionary and Financials were both up double digits, rising 12.9% and 10.5%, respectively.

Sales of new single-family homes logged its worst month-over-month change since July 2013, even as mortgage rates were largely unchanged. Both ISM sector PMIs advanced higher, and the Manufacturing sector got about within one point of expansion territory. The price of gold took a pause in its historic rally, but Bitcoin, sometimes referred to as “digital gold,” soared 34.7% in November and came within inches of $100,000.

Treasury yield activity was rather muted in November. The 20-year experienced the largest move, falling 13 basis points.

Several bond funds managed price appreciation despite the relatively quiet activity in yield movement. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose 2% in November, and the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) advanced 1.8%.

 

---

Chappell Wealth Watch! The S&P 500’s Journey to 6,000

 

The S&P 500 crossed 6,000 for the first time on November 11th, 2024. This is the second 1,000-point milestone to take place in the same year, as the index hit the 5,000-point mark back in February.

It took the S&P 500 just 9 months and 3 days to go from 5,000 to 6,000, which is the shortest amount of time ever to cross a 1,000 point threshold–and in stark contrast to the 48 years and 1 month that it took for the index to reach its first 1,000 point milestone.

 

---

Equity Performance: U.S. Stocks Surge, Growth Sectors and Small Caps Lead Charge

 

---

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

---

US Sector Movement

 

 

---

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of November 2024

 

 

---

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of November 2024

 

 

---

Economic Data Overview:  New Single-Family Home Sales Suffer Worse Month in Over 10 Years, Bitcoin Nears $100K

 

Employment

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% between September and October, while the labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 62.6%. October nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs this month, partially due to the recent hurricanes and dockworker strike. This was the lowest monthly jobs figure since December 2020 and well below the expected increase of 100,000.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate rose to 2.6%, ending a streak of sixth straight monthly declines. Core inflation came in at 3.33% for October. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.24% month over month, and US Personal Spending increased by 0.36%.

The Federal Reserve cut its key Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points at the FOMC’s November 7th meeting. This lowered the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.50%-4.75% from 4.75%-5.00%, and marks the second rate cut since March 2020.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded by 1.9 points in November to 48.40. The Services PMI added another 1.1 points between September and October, bringing its latest reading up to 56. The YoY US Producer Price Index bumped up to 2.4% in October, while US Retail and Food Services Sales increased 0.43% between September and October.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales plummeted 17.3% MoM in October, the largest monthly decline since July 2013. On the other hand, Existing Home Sales increased 3.4% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes remained relatively unchanged month over month, as did mortgage rates. The 15-year Mortgage Rate ended November at 6.10% while the 30-year settled at 6.81%.

Commodities

The price of gold took a breather from its historic run, shedding 3% in November and ending the month at a price of $2,651.10 per ounce in US Dollars. Brent crude oil rose 1.4% in November to $74.27 per barrel as of November 25th while the price of WTI was largely unchanged. The average price of gas fell 5 cents MoM to $3.17 per gallon.

 

---

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

---

Bond Fund Performance

 

 

October 2024 Market Summary: Equities Stall, Job Numbers Disappoint, and Treasury Yields Rise

 

Equities slid in October as the 2024 presidential election drew near. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3% in October. Semiconductor stock underperformance particularly weighed on markets; four of the ten worst performing S&P 500 stocks were companies in the semiconductors & semiconductor equipment industry, along with Super Micro Computer (SMCI). Ex-US indices logged worse performances this month; Emerging Markets sank 4.3% and Developed Markets tumbled 5.4%.

Eight of eleven sectors finished last month in the black; this month, it was the opposite. Only three sectors–Financials, Communication Services, and Energy–had a positive October. The worst-performing sector was Health Care, which lost 4.6% in October. Close behind was Consumer Staples (-3.5%) and Real Estate (-3.3%), the latter of which was affected by slowing home sales and prices along with spiking mortgage rates.

The Economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, the lowest monthly figure since December 2020. October saw several divergences among economic indicators: inflation fell while core inflation rose, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined as the Services PMI jumped higher, and mortgage rates spiked significantly even as Fed watchers expect the Fed Funds Rate to be cut by 25 basis points at the next FOMC meeting on November 7th, according to CME FedWatch.

Treasury yields shot higher in the middle and longer portion of the curve even as future Fed rate cuts are expected as early as the November 7th FOMC meeting. The 3-year and 5-year Treasury Note yields rose the most of any durations on the curve, gaining 54 and 57 basis points, respectively. Yields on the 1-month and 3-month Treasury Bills declined in October.

Several bond funds took a hit as a result of the increasing yields. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 5.5% in October, and the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) lost 3.2%. Declines in the 1-month and 3-month T-Bill yields helped move the short-duration SPDR® Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) higher by 0.4%.

 

---

Chappell Wealth Watch! Should the Election Cause You to Change Investing Strategies?

 

The 2024 presidential election has arrived. Though elections often bring added volatility to markets, our 2024 Election Guide for Advisors found that making investing decisions based on election outcomes is not as beneficial in the long-run versus staying the course.

Historically, investing only during the presidencies of one’s preferred political party results in missing out on significant gains over time. For example, a fully-invested all-S&P 500 portfolio generated an 8.11% annualized return since 1950 through October 31st, 2024, much higher than that same portfolio invested only during Democratic or Republican presidencies, and cash otherwise.

Though the candidates, policies, and election results differ every four years, staying the course has produced the best long-term outcomes regardless of who wins or loses.

 

---

Equity Performance: U.S. Indices Take Breather, Semiconductor Companies Weigh on Tech Sector

 

---

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

---

US Sector Movement

 

 

---

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of October 2024

 

 

---

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of October 2024

 

 

---

Economic Data Overview: Economy Adds Fewest Jobs since December 2020, Gold and Bitcoin Hit Highs

 

Employment

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% between September and October, while the labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 62.6%. October nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs this month, partially due to the recent hurricanes and dockworker strike. This was the lowest monthly jobs figure since December 2020 and well below the expected increase of 100,000.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate fell for the sixth straight month to 2.44% in September; on the other hand, core inflation went in the opposite direction for the second month in a row, coming in at 3.31%. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.53% month over month, and US Personal Spending increased by 0.18%.

The Federal Reserve’s next FOMC meeting is just around the corner on November 7th, where the Fed is expected to cut its key Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points, according to CME FedWatch. This would lower the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.50%-4.75% from 4.75%-5.00% and mark the second rate cut since March 2020.

Production and Sales

After remaining unchanged at 47.20 between August and September, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.50 in October, slipping another 0.7 points further into contraction territory. However, the Services PMI surged 3.4 points higher to 54.90 in September, building further momentum off of a 2.6-point gain from July. The YoY US Producer Price Index fell to 1.76% in September, while US Retail and Food Services Sales increased 0.43% between August and September.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales rebounded by 4.1% MoM in September following a contraction in August, but Existing Home Sales dipped by 1% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes dipped for the third consecutive month to $404,500 as of September. This marks a 2.9% MoM decrease and a 5.2% decline from its all-time high set in June. Mortgage rates surged higher in October, forming a V-shaped recovery since August. The 15-year Mortgage Rate rebounded by 83 basis points to 5.99% while the 30-year rose by 64 bps to 6.72%, both as of October 31st.

Commodities

Gold continued its 2024 run, adding another 4% in October, bringing its price per ounce in US Dollars to $2,734.20 as of October 31st, marking a YTD gain of 31.6%. Crude oil prices dipped slightly in October; the price of WTI fell by 1.6% in October to $67.65 per barrel as of October 28th, while Brent sank by 0.7% to $71.87. Falling oil prices translated into lower gas prices, with the average price of gas shedding another 8 cents MoM to $3.22 per gallon.

 

---

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

---

Bond Fund Performance

 

September 2024 Market Summary: Equities Gain Strength, Fed Cuts Rates, and Treasury Yields Decline

 

Stocks fell in the first week of September but gained strength leading up to and following the FOMC meeting on September 18th. The S&P 500 rose 2.1% in August, the Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced 2%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 2.8%. Emerging Markets was a big beneficiary of monetary policy easing, jumping 6.7% in September.

Eight of eleven sectors finished September in the black. Consumer Discretionary and Utilities led the way with respective gains of 7.3% and 6.6%, followed by Communication Services at 3.8%. Financials, Health Care, and Energy were the three sectors that went negative in September. Tumbling oil prices pushed the Energy sector 3% lower in September and into the last-place spot among all sectors.

The Federal Reserve cut its benchmark Fed Funds Rate for the first time since March 2020. The Fed Funds Rate was lowered by 50 basis points from 5.50% to 5.00% at the September 18th FOMC meeting. As a result, the 15-year mortgage rate shed 35 basis points down to 5.16%, and the 30-year approached 6%. Inflation fell for the fifth consecutive month, though core inflation inched higher.

Treasury yields fell across the curve with shorter-term durations posting larger declines. The 1-month, 3-month, and 6-month T-Bills all fell around 50 basis points, reflecting the Fed’s half a percentage point rate cut. Declines were less steep further down the curve; the 10-year fell a tenth of a percentage point, and the 30-year dipped six basis points.

Bond funds benefitted from the Fed’s actions and declining yields. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) and iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) both rose over 1.9%, and the Core US Aggregate Bond ETF (AGG) advanced 1.3%.

 

---

Chappell Wealth Watch! Which Asset Classes Perform Best When CPI is in Range?

 

Inflation has fallen further and further toward the Fed’s 2% target since reaching a peak of 9.06% in June 2022. Now that CPI is approaching an “in-range” period that aligns with the Fed’s preferred inflation measures, it’s a fitting time to examine how various asset classes perform when stable prices are sustained.

Our latest research piece, “Which Asset Classes Perform Best as Inflation is Driven Lower?”, looks at average asset class performance when CPI was between 1.9% and 2.9% from July 31, 1996, to July 31, 2024. CPI was in this range in 105 out of 326 12-month periods, or 32.2% of the time.

Generally speaking, equities outperformed commodity and bond indices when prices were sustained. Both the Emerging Markets and Russell 2000 Growth indices posted average returns of greater than 15% during the periods mentioned above. The S&P 500, Russell 1000 and 2000, World ExUSA, and Real Estate indices all logged double-digit average returns while the three bond indices on the chart below returned less than 5% on average during periods of “in-range” CPI.

 

---

Equity Performance: Emerging Markets Pop, US Indices Advance Higher

Major Indexes

 

---

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

---

US Sector Movement

 

 

---

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of September 2024

 

 

---

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of September 2024

 

 

---

Economic Data Overview: Fed Issues First Rate Cut Since 2020, Gold Sets Another All-Time High

 

Employment

The unemployment rate dipped to 4.2% in August, ending a streak of four straight monthly increases. The decrease from 4.3% to 4.2% comes one month after the “Sahm Rule”, an economic rule of thumb serving as early warning of a possible recession, was triggered. The labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.7%. Nonfarm payroll data revealed 142,000 jobs were added in August, below the expected 161,000 but up from July’s revised figure of 89,000, which marked the lowest positive job gain for a month since May 2019.

The unemployment rate dominated financial headlines in August because its rise of 0.5 percentage points from its 12-month low of 3.8% triggered the “Sahm Rule”, which serves as an early warning sign of a possible recession. However, the rise in unemployment and weaker-than-expected job gains come as the labor force participation rate rose to 62.7% in July, making economists assess if things will be different this time.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation ticked lower for the fifth straight month, down to 2.53% in August; core inflation inched slightly higher to 3.20%, marking just the 2nd month out of the last 17 in which core inflation increased. Looking at the shorter-term month-over-month changes, the US Consumer Price Index rose 0.19%, and US Personal Spending increased by a quarter percent.

The Federal Reserve lowered its key Fed Funds Rate by 50 basis points at the September 18th FOMC meeting, bringing the key benchmark rate down from 5.50% to 5.00%. This was the first rate cut since March 2020, and comes after eight consecutive meetings in which the Fed maintained the Fed Funds Rate at 5.50%.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI was unchanged between August and September at a level of 47.20 and remains in contraction territory with a reading below 50. The Services PMI ticked up 0.1 points to 51.50 on the back of a 2.6-point rebound in July. The YoY US Producer Price Index fell to 1.73% in August, and US Retail and Food Services Sales were virtually unchanged in August.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales contracted by 4.7% MoM, and Existing Home Sales dipped 2.5% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes fell for a second consecutive month, by 1.1% MoM to $416,700 at the end of August. Mortgage rates fell further as expectations of a September rate cut became a reality at the September 18th FOMC meeting; the 15-year Mortgage Rate fell by 35 basis points to 5.16% while the 30-year shed 27 bps to 6.08%, both as of September 26th.

Commodities

The price of Gold surged 5.9% in September and set another new all-time high after breaking through $2,500 in August, ending the month at $2,661.90 per ounce. Crude oil prices dipped in September; the price of WTI reached a YTD low of $66.73 per barrel before settling at $71.33 on September 23rd, a decline of 4.3% for the month. Brent also set a YTD low in September before rebounding in the back half of the month to $74.95 as of September 23rd. Lower oil prices translated into lower gas prices, with the average price of gas falling by 11 cents in the month to $3.30 per gallon as of September 30th.

 

---

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

---

Bond Fund Performance