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Diamond Podcast for Financial Advisors: Interview Featuring Brent & Brad Chappell

Posted on by Angie Burgess

Click Here to Watch the Interview: Brent & Brad Chappell

Insights on Transitions, Independence & Advisor Growth

About this episode…

Many successful people attribute their achievements to having a great mentor.

For Brent and Brad Chappell, their father was a “childhood hero who became their business mentor.”

Robert Chappell founded his wealth management practice at Merrill in 1984, when being part of the “Thundering Herd” was like being part of a much larger family.

The brothers proudly reminisce about the influence Robert and his work at Merrill had on them, so it was no surprise when Brent and Brad joined the firm in 2002 and 2006, respectively.

The Chappells’ early experience at Merrill was one of two families blended together. Yet that kinship diminished after the firm’s sale to Bank of America, and the team’s ability to serve clients and conduct daily business became challenged.

Like many successful wirehouse teams, the Chappells credit the firm for being the foundation of their family business. But they saw the handwriting on the wall, and it said that they owed it to themselves and their clients to explore their options.

In February 2023, Brent, Brad, and their team left the firm their father retired from and launched Chappell Wealth Management as one of the largest teams on the Sanctuary Wealth supported independence platform.

In this episode with Louis Diamond, Brent and Brad talk about their journey and motivations, including:

  • Growing up with Merrill—and what changes they witnessed over the years.
  • Their unique perspective as next gens in a family business—and when it became clear that “what got them here wouldn’t get them there.”
  • The economics of a move to independence—and how they reconciled the fact that they would owe money back on their father’s CTP agreement.
  • Their exploration and transition process—and why “education” was one of the most valuable facets.
  • Plus, what it really takes to build a $1B+ business.

Listen in as they candidly share a unique narrative about a changing wirehouse world, family dynamics, succession, and building a strong business designed to achieve long-term enterprise value.

About Chappell

Posted on by dev

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March 2025 Monthly Market Update

Posted on by Angie Burgess

March 2025 Market Summary: U.S. Stock Indices Tumble Further, Investors Flock to Gold, Yield Curve Largely Unchanged

 

Domestic equity indices fell further into the red to end Q1 as the North-American stock slide continued, influenced by macro events such as the U.S.-Canada trade war. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.3%, the S&P 500 slipped 4.6%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 10.4%. Developed EAFE Markets dipped only 0.3%, while Emerging Markets posted a 0.7% gain. This market movement was a continuation of patterns that occurred in February.

Only two of the eleven sectors posted a positive return in March: Energy and Utilities. The worst performers were the cyclically sensitive sectors of Consumer Discretionary and Technology, both of which fell 8.3%. Communication Services was the third-worst, down 5.2%.

The price of Gold surged above $3,000 per ounce for the first time, setting another new all-time high. At the same time, high-risk assets such as cryptocurrencies dove further in March. Inflation continued to decline, while the Fed held the Fed Funds Rate for the second consecutive FOMC meeting. As of April 1st, 2025, investors expect them to do the same at the May meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

The yield curve posted no significant moves across any duration in March, which led to relatively muted bond fund performance. The biggest gainer was the Vanguard Short-Term Bond Index Fund ETF (BSV), while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) slipped 1.2%.

 

Chappell Wealth Watch! After the First Quarter, the Score is…

The first quarter has concluded – and it saw equities decline.

  • Dow Jones: -1.27%
  • S&P 500: -4.59%
  • Nasdaq: -10.42%

This is only the seventh Q1 since 2000 where all three major U.S. indices posted negative Q1 returns. The worst Q1 in this 26-year timespan was in 2020, when the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq posted negative returns of -23.2%, -20.0%, and -14.2%, respectively.

 

Equity Performance: U.S. Stock Indices Tumble in March, Only Two of Eleven Sectors Positive

 

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

US Sector Movement

 

 

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of March 2025

 

 

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of March 2025

 

 

Economic Data Overview: Gold Soars to New All-Time High While Cryptocurrency Prices Plummet, Inflation Falls Back Below 3%

 

Employment

The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1% after falling to 4.0% for the first time since May 2024 in January, while the labor force participation rate fell by two-tenths of a percentage point to 62.4%. Nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added 151,000 jobs in February, falling short of the expected 170,000 consensus figure.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate leveled off at 2.82% in February after reaching 3% for the first time since May 2024. Core inflation also took a dip from 3.26% in January to 3.12% in February. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.22% month over month, and US Personal Spending rebounded 0.43% MoM after contracting last month for the first time since March 2023.

The Federal Reserve maintained its key Fed Funds Rate target range of 4.25%-4.50% at the FOMC’s March 19th meeting. The next meeting will take place May 7th, where investors anticipate the Fed Funds Rate to remain unchanged for the third consecutive meeting, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by 1.3 points in March to 49.0, putting the index back in contraction territory after being above 50 for the last two months. The Services PMI improved by 0.7 points between January and February, bringing its latest reading up to 53.50. The YoY US Producer Price Index declined to 3.17% in January, while US Retail and Food Services Sales improved 0.20% MoM between January and February.

Housing

Both types of home sales rebounded in February. US New Single-Family Home Sales improved 1.81% MoM in February, and Existing Home Sales rose 4.16% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes increased by 1.27% to $398,400, but remains 6.68% off its all-time high. Mortgage rates did not post significant moves in March; the 15-year Mortgage Rate ended up at 5.89% in the last week of March, while the 30-year settled at 6.65%.

Commodities

The price of gold set another all-time high in March, surging 10.2% in March to end the month at $3,122.67 per ounce in US Dollars. Oil prices moved in the opposite direction; Brent crude oil fell 1.1% in March to $73.96 per barrel as of March 24th, while the price of WTI slipped 0.7% to $69.46 per barrel as of the same date. The average price of gas increased another 3 cents MoM to $3.28 per gallon.

 

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

Bond Fund Performance

 

February 2025 Monthly Market Update

Posted on by Angie Burgess

February 2025 Market Summary: U.S. Stock Indices Post Modest Declines, Employment Situation Improves, and the Median Home Price Slides Further

 

Domestic stock indices turned negative in February as ex-U.S. indices posted positive performances. The S&P 500 fell 1.3%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 1.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite tumbled 3.9%. Emerging Markets added 0.5%, and Developed EAFE Markets logged a 2% gain.

The two consumer-related sectors were at the highest and lowest ends of the returns spectrum in February. Consumer Staples rose 5.2% in February, and Consumer Discretionary fell 7%. Six of the 11 total sectors were positive in February.

The Median Sale Price of Existing Homes fell below $400,000 for the first month in nearly a year, as New Single-Family Home Sales plummeted 10.5% MoM in December. On the employment front, unemployment fell to 4.0% as labor force participation rose. In commodity news, Gold reached a new all-time high in February as oil prices slipped.

Yields on mid to long-term Treasury instruments fell in February while shorter-term yields remained largely unchanged month over month. The decline in longer-term yields helped push bond funds higher, including the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT), which advanced 5.7% in February.

 

Off the YCharts! The Not-so-Magnificent Seven

The Magnificent Seven stocks––Apple (AAPL), Amazon (AMZN), Alphabet (GOOG, GOOGL), Meta Platforms (META), Microsoft (MSFT), NVIDIA (NVDA), and Tesla (TSLA)–lifted the market higher in 2023 and 2024, combining for a 156.1% return over that two-year span compared to a 25.2% gain for the rest of the index. (The S&P 500 overall was up 53.2% between 2023-2024.)

However, the tables seem to be turning in 2025.

Though the S&P 500 is up 1.4% through the first two months in 2025, it’s the broader “S&P 493” that is keeping the overall index afloat as the Magnificent Seven finds itself in selloff mode. This chart highlights a potential shift in market leadership and a market rotation into the broader S&P 493 companies that have performed well while the largest tech stocks have struggled.

 

Equity Performance: U.S. Stocks Slide in February, ex-U.S. Indices Rise

 

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

US Sector Movement

 

 

Hot Stocks: Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of February 2025

 

 

Laggards & Losers: 10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of February 2025

 

 

Economic Data Overview: Home Prices Fall along with Sales Activity, Cryptocurrency Prices Plummet

 

Employment

The unemployment rate fell to 4.0% for the first time since May 2024, while the labor force participation rate inched higher by one-tenth of a percentage point to 62.6%. Nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added 143,000 jobs in January, falling short of the expected 175,000 figure.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate rose to 3.00% in January, reaching this level for the first time since May 2024. Core inflation stayed roughly the same, clocking in at 3.26%. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.47% month over month, and US Personal Spending contracted for the first time since March 2023.

The Federal Reserve maintained its key Fed Funds Rate target range of 4.25%-4.50% at the FOMC’s January 29th meeting. The next meeting will take place March 18-19th, where investors anticipate the Fed Funds Rate to remain unchanged, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI fell by 0.6 points in February but remained in expansion territory at 50.30. The Services PMI declined 1.2 points between December and January, bringing its latest reading down to 52.80. The YoY US Producer Price Index rose to 3.51% in January, while US Retail and Food Services Sales MoM contracted -0.88% between December and January.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales plummeted 10.5% MoM in December, and Existing Home Sales also slipped 4.9% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes fell for the sixth time in the last seven months to $396,900, falling below $400,000 for the first time since March 2024. Mortgage rates came down slightly as well; the 15-year Mortgage Rate ended up at 5.94% in the last week of February, while the 30-year settled at 6.76%.

Commodities

The price of gold surged as much as 4.4% in February but ended the month 0.8% higher MoM, finishing February at $2,834.60 per ounce in US Dollars. Oil prices moved in the opposite direction; Brent crude oil fell 2.9% in February to $74.89 per barrel as of February 24th, while the price of WTI slipped 2.4% to $71.06 per barrel as of February 24th. The average price of gas increased 3 cents MoM to $3.25 per gallon.

 

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

Bond Fund Performance

 

January 2025 Monthly Market Update

Posted on by Angie Burgess

January 2025 Market Summary: Stocks Drive Higher, Gold Soars to New All-Time High, Treasury Yields Largely Unchanged

 

Equities got off to a strong start in 2025 with positive performances in January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 4.8%, the S&P 500 advanced 2.8% and the Nasdaq Composite added 1.7%. Large-cap Value had the best month among Russell 1000 and Russell 2000 equity styles, increasing 4.5% in January.

With the exception of Technology (-0.7%), all sectors rose in January. The best-performing sector in January was Health Care, which advanced 6.8%.

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI improved to 50.90, joining the Services PMI in expansion territory for the first time since March 2024. Gold jumped 7.8% in January to $2,812.10 USD per ounce and the price of Brent crude oil rose 3.6% amid looming threats of a possible trade war between the U.S. and various countries.

The yield curve remained largely flat month-over-month, with the largest move across the curve being the 3-month slipping 6 basis points. In bond funds, the iShares iBoxx $ High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG) advanced 1.4%.

 

Chappell Wealth Watch! The State of a Potential Trade War

There are looming threats of U.S. imposed tariffs on certain countries, namely Canada and Mexico. What does the trade balance between each country look like?

Below are the U.S. trade balance figures between Canada and Mexico as of Q3 2024:

Trade balance on Services with Canada: $9.604 billion
Trade balance on Goods with Canada: -$19.03 billion
Trade balance on Services with Mexico: $1.295 billion
Trade balance on Goods with Mexico: -$45.91 billion

 

Equity Performance: Stocks Start Off Strong in 2025

 

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

US Sector Movement

 

 

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of January 2025

 

 

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of January 2025

 

 

Economic Data Overview: Gold Surges Amid Looming Trade War, Manufacturing Sector Re-enters Expansion Terrirory by a Quarter Point, Inflation Remains Level

 

Employment

The unemployment rate slipped to 4.1% between November and December, and the labor force participation rate remained unchanged at 62.5%. November nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added 256,000 jobs this month, the second straight monthly increase and surpassing the expected forecast of 155,000.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate inched higher for the third straight month to 2.89%, while core inflation decreased slightly to 3.24%. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.39% month over month, and US Personal Spending increased by 0.66%.

The Federal Reserve maintained its key Fed Funds Rate target range of 4.25%-4.50% at the FOMC’s January 29th meeting.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI improved by another 1.7 points in January to 50.90, boosting the Manufacturing sector into expansion territory for the first time since March 2024. The Services PMI increased 2.0 points between November and December, bringing its latest reading up to 54.10. The YoY US Producer Price Index rose to 3.31% in December, while US Retail and Food Services Sales MoM 0.45% between November and December.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales increased 3.6% MoM in December, while Existing Home Sales rose 2.2% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes remained unchanged at $404,400 month over month, while mortgage rates rose slightly; the 15-year Mortgage Rate ended January at 6.12%, while the 30-year settled at 6.95%.

Commodities

The price of gold surged 7.8% in January to $2,812.10 per ounce in US Dollars amid intensification of a potential multinational trade war. Oil prices also shot higher; Brent crude oil rose 3.6% in January to $77.30 per barrel as of January 27th, while the price of WTI increased 1.5% to $73.51 per barrel as of January 27th. The average price of gas increased 9 cents MoM to $3.22 per gallon as a result.

 

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

Bond Fund Performance

 

December 2024 Monthly Market Update

Posted on by Angie Burgess

December 2024 Market Summary: Stocks End 2024 on a Mixed Note, Fed Cuts Interest Rate, Bond Funds Rise as Yield Fall

 

Equities posted mixed results in December to close out 2024. The price-weighted Dow Jones Industrial Average sank 5.1% as UnitedHealth Group (UNH), Sherwin-Williams (SHW), and Caterpillar (CAT) all posted double-digit declines in December. The market cap-weighted S&P 500 fell 2.4% and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.6%. Small-caps had a particularly tough end to the year, as the Russell 2000 tumbled 8.3% in December.

Nonetheless, all three major US indices had a formidable 2024. The Dow rose 12.9%, the S&P 500 advanced 23.3%, and the Nasdaq surged 28.6%.

Only one sector had a positive December—Consumer Discretionary, which gained 1.1%. The worst-performing sector in December was Materials, which plummeted 10.8%.

The Federal Reserve cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points, bringing the current target range down to 4.25%-4.50%. Core inflation remained between 3.31% and 3.33% across all three prints between September and November. The prices of gold and major cryptocurrencies Bitcoin and Ethereum all fell lower in December to cap off what was a very positive 2024 for all three.

Short-term treasury yields fell following the Fed’s December 18th rate cut, while longer-term yields climbed higher. The 1-month fell by 36 basis points while the 30-year rose by 42 basis points at the opposite end of the curve.

Bond funds also posted a mixed December as a result of the mixed yield movement. The SPDR Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) added 0.4%, while the iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) sank 6.4%.

 

Chappell Wealth Watch! Top Performers of 2024

 

Another year has come and gone. With 2024 now in the rearview mirror, what were the year’s best performers?

These were the ten best-performing S&P 500 stocks in 2024:

Palantir Technologies Inc (PLTR): 340.5%

Vistra Corp (VST): 257.9%

NVIDIA Corp (NVDA): 171.2%

United Airlines Holdings Inc (UAL): 135.3%

Axon Enterprise Inc (AXON): 130.1%

Texas Pacific Land Corp (TPL): 111.0%

Broadcom Inc (AVGO): 107.7%

Targa Resources Corp (TRGP): 105.5%

Howmet Aerospace Inc (HWM): 102.1%

Constellation Energy Corp (CEG): 91.4%

For the best-performing stocks of last year within the Dow Jones Industrial Average, Nasdaq-100, Russell 1000, and Russell 2000 indices, check out our recent blog post on The Best Performing Stocks of 2024.

 

Equity Performance: Stocks Post Mixed Results to End the Year

 

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

US Sector Movement

 

 

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of December 2024

 

 

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of December 2024

 

 

Economic Data Overview: Fed Cuts Interest Rate by a Quarter Point, Inflation Remains Level

 

Employment

The unemployment rate ticked higher to 4.2% between October and November, and the labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 62.5%. November nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added 227,000 jobs this month, a rebound from October’s print of 36,000, which was the lowest monthly jobs figure since December 2020.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate inched higher to 2.75%, while core inflation was virtually unchanged at 3.33% for November. Core inflation YoY has remained rangebound between 3.31% and 3.33% over the last three months. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.31% month over month, and US Personal Spending increased by 0.40%.

The Federal Reserve cut its key Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points at the FOMC’s December 18th meeting. This lowered the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.25%-4.50% from 4.50%-4.75%, and marks the third rate cut since March 2020.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded by 1.9 points in November to 48.40, though the Services PMI dropped 3.9 points between October and November, bringing its latest reading down to 52.10. The YoY US Producer Price Index rose to 2.98% in November, while US Retail and Food Services Sales increased 0.69% between October and November.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales rebounded with a 5.9% MoM increase in November after plummeting 14.8% in October, which was the largest monthly decline since July 2013. Existing Home Sales increased 4.8% MoM, marking its second consecutive monthly increase. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes remained relatively unchanged month over month, as did mortgage rates. The 15-year Mortgage Rate ended December at 6.00%, while the 30-year settled slightly higher MoM at 6.85%.

Commodities

The price of gold shed another 1.3% in December, breaking further from its historic run higher and ending the month at $2,616.00 per ounce in US Dollars. Brent crude oil declined by 0.9% in December to $73.50 per barrel as of December 25th, while the price of WTI increased 3.1% to $70.38 per barrel as of December 26th. The average price of gas fell 4 cents MoM to $3.13 per gallon.

 

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

Bond Fund Performance

 

 

November 2024 Monthly Market Update

Posted on by Angie Burgess

November 2024 Market Summary: Stocks Rally, Home Sales Collapse, Bond Funds Appreciate

 

Equities rallied in November following the 2024 presidential election. The Dow Jones Industrial Average surged 7.7%, the Nasdaq Composite added 6.3%, and the S&P 500 advanced 5.9%. Certain ex-US markets weren’t as upbeat about the conclusion of the election, as Emerging Markets fell 3.6% and Developed Markets slipped 0.6%.

All eleven sectors finished November in the black. Consumer Discretionary and Financials were both up double digits, rising 12.9% and 10.5%, respectively.

Sales of new single-family homes logged its worst month-over-month change since July 2013, even as mortgage rates were largely unchanged. Both ISM sector PMIs advanced higher, and the Manufacturing sector got about within one point of expansion territory. The price of gold took a pause in its historic rally, but Bitcoin, sometimes referred to as “digital gold,” soared 34.7% in November and came within inches of $100,000.

Treasury yield activity was rather muted in November. The 20-year experienced the largest move, falling 13 basis points.

Several bond funds managed price appreciation despite the relatively quiet activity in yield movement. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) rose 2% in November, and the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) advanced 1.8%.

 

Chappell Wealth Watch! The S&P 500’s Journey to 6,000

 

The S&P 500 crossed 6,000 for the first time on November 11th, 2024. This is the second 1,000-point milestone to take place in the same year, as the index hit the 5,000-point mark back in February.

It took the S&P 500 just 9 months and 3 days to go from 5,000 to 6,000, which is the shortest amount of time ever to cross a 1,000 point threshold–and in stark contrast to the 48 years and 1 month that it took for the index to reach its first 1,000 point milestone.

 

Equity Performance: U.S. Stocks Surge, Growth Sectors and Small Caps Lead Charge

 

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

US Sector Movement

 

 

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of November 2024

 

 

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of November 2024

 

 

Economic Data Overview:  New Single-Family Home Sales Suffer Worse Month in Over 10 Years, Bitcoin Nears $100K

 

Employment

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% between September and October, while the labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 62.6%. October nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs this month, partially due to the recent hurricanes and dockworker strike. This was the lowest monthly jobs figure since December 2020 and well below the expected increase of 100,000.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate rose to 2.6%, ending a streak of sixth straight monthly declines. Core inflation came in at 3.33% for October. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.24% month over month, and US Personal Spending increased by 0.36%.

The Federal Reserve cut its key Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points at the FOMC’s November 7th meeting. This lowered the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.50%-4.75% from 4.75%-5.00%, and marks the second rate cut since March 2020.

Production and Sales

The US ISM Manufacturing PMI rebounded by 1.9 points in November to 48.40. The Services PMI added another 1.1 points between September and October, bringing its latest reading up to 56. The YoY US Producer Price Index bumped up to 2.4% in October, while US Retail and Food Services Sales increased 0.43% between September and October.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales plummeted 17.3% MoM in October, the largest monthly decline since July 2013. On the other hand, Existing Home Sales increased 3.4% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes remained relatively unchanged month over month, as did mortgage rates. The 15-year Mortgage Rate ended November at 6.10% while the 30-year settled at 6.81%.

Commodities

The price of gold took a breather from its historic run, shedding 3% in November and ending the month at a price of $2,651.10 per ounce in US Dollars. Brent crude oil rose 1.4% in November to $74.27 per barrel as of November 25th while the price of WTI was largely unchanged. The average price of gas fell 5 cents MoM to $3.17 per gallon.

 

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

Bond Fund Performance

 

 

October 2024 Monthly Market Update

Posted on by Angie Burgess

October 2024 Market Summary: Equities Stall, Job Numbers Disappoint, and Treasury Yields Rise

 

Equities slid in October as the 2024 presidential election drew near. The S&P 500 fell 0.9%, the Nasdaq Composite slipped 0.5%, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 1.3% in October. Semiconductor stock underperformance particularly weighed on markets; four of the ten worst performing S&P 500 stocks were companies in the semiconductors & semiconductor equipment industry, along with Super Micro Computer (SMCI). Ex-US indices logged worse performances this month; Emerging Markets sank 4.3% and Developed Markets tumbled 5.4%.

Eight of eleven sectors finished last month in the black; this month, it was the opposite. Only three sectors–Financials, Communication Services, and Energy–had a positive October. The worst-performing sector was Health Care, which lost 4.6% in October. Close behind was Consumer Staples (-3.5%) and Real Estate (-3.3%), the latter of which was affected by slowing home sales and prices along with spiking mortgage rates.

The Economy added just 12,000 jobs in October, the lowest monthly figure since December 2020. October saw several divergences among economic indicators: inflation fell while core inflation rose, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI declined as the Services PMI jumped higher, and mortgage rates spiked significantly even as Fed watchers expect the Fed Funds Rate to be cut by 25 basis points at the next FOMC meeting on November 7th, according to CME FedWatch.

Treasury yields shot higher in the middle and longer portion of the curve even as future Fed rate cuts are expected as early as the November 7th FOMC meeting. The 3-year and 5-year Treasury Note yields rose the most of any durations on the curve, gaining 54 and 57 basis points, respectively. Yields on the 1-month and 3-month Treasury Bills declined in October.

Several bond funds took a hit as a result of the increasing yields. The iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF (TLT) fell 5.5% in October, and the iShares iBoxx Investment Grade Corporate Bond ETF (LQD) lost 3.2%. Declines in the 1-month and 3-month T-Bill yields helped move the short-duration SPDR® Bloomberg 1-3 Month T-Bill ETF (BIL) higher by 0.4%.

 

Chappell Wealth Watch! Should the Election Cause You to Change Investing Strategies?

 

The 2024 presidential election has arrived. Though elections often bring added volatility to markets, our 2024 Election Guide for Advisors found that making investing decisions based on election outcomes is not as beneficial in the long-run versus staying the course.

Historically, investing only during the presidencies of one’s preferred political party results in missing out on significant gains over time. For example, a fully-invested all-S&P 500 portfolio generated an 8.11% annualized return since 1950 through October 31st, 2024, much higher than that same portfolio invested only during Democratic or Republican presidencies, and cash otherwise.

Though the candidates, policies, and election results differ every four years, staying the course has produced the best long-term outcomes regardless of who wins or loses.

 

Equity Performance: U.S. Indices Take Breather, Semiconductor Companies Weigh on Tech Sector

 

Value vs. Growth Performance

 

 

US Sector Movement

 

 

Top 10 S&P 500 Performers of October 2024

 

 

10 Worst S&P 500 Performers of October 2024

 

 

Economic Data Overview: Economy Adds Fewest Jobs since December 2020, Gold and Bitcoin Hit Highs

 

Employment

The unemployment rate remained unchanged at 4.1% between September and October, while the labor force participation rate fell 0.1 percentage points to 62.6%. October nonfarm payroll data showed that the U.S. economy added just 12,000 jobs this month, partially due to the recent hurricanes and dockworker strike. This was the lowest monthly jobs figure since December 2020 and well below the expected increase of 100,000.

Consumers and Inflation

The US inflation rate fell for the sixth straight month to 2.44% in September; on the other hand, core inflation went in the opposite direction for the second month in a row, coming in at 3.31%. The US Consumer Price Index rose 0.53% month over month, and US Personal Spending increased by 0.18%.

The Federal Reserve’s next FOMC meeting is just around the corner on November 7th, where the Fed is expected to cut its key Fed Funds Rate by 25 basis points, according to CME FedWatch. This would lower the Fed Funds Rate down to 4.50%-4.75% from 4.75%-5.00% and mark the second rate cut since March 2020.

Production and Sales

After remaining unchanged at 47.20 between August and September, the US ISM Manufacturing PMI came in at 46.50 in October, slipping another 0.7 points further into contraction territory. However, the Services PMI surged 3.4 points higher to 54.90 in September, building further momentum off of a 2.6-point gain from July. The YoY US Producer Price Index fell to 1.76% in September, while US Retail and Food Services Sales increased 0.43% between August and September.

Housing

US New Single-Family Home Sales rebounded by 4.1% MoM in September following a contraction in August, but Existing Home Sales dipped by 1% MoM. The Median Sales Price of Existing Homes dipped for the third consecutive month to $404,500 as of September. This marks a 2.9% MoM decrease and a 5.2% decline from its all-time high set in June. Mortgage rates surged higher in October, forming a V-shaped recovery since August. The 15-year Mortgage Rate rebounded by 83 basis points to 5.99% while the 30-year rose by 64 bps to 6.72%, both as of October 31st.

Commodities

Gold continued its 2024 run, adding another 4% in October, bringing its price per ounce in US Dollars to $2,734.20 as of October 31st, marking a YTD gain of 31.6%. Crude oil prices dipped slightly in October; the price of WTI fell by 1.6% in October to $67.65 per barrel as of October 28th, while Brent sank by 0.7% to $71.87. Falling oil prices translated into lower gas prices, with the average price of gas shedding another 8 cents MoM to $3.22 per gallon.

 

Fixed Income Performance: Insights into Bond ETFs & Treasury Yields

US Treasury Yield Curve

 

 

Bond Fund Performance